Association Management in the 2030s: Four Possible Scenarios for 2030

Sector Management in Times of Turbulent Change 

Association Management in the 2030s: Four Possible Scenarios for 2030

Welcome to this blog celebrating Lejeune’s 60th anniversary. In the run-up to the anniversary conference on Thursday 31st October, we have published a series of blogs, reflecting on the six decades of Lejeune Association Management. For each decade, we will discuss the context of world history, economic, social, and governance developments, and how our office has continuously evolved in response to these changes.

Four Possible Scenarios for 2030

We take a glimpse into the future. Using the proven scenario planning methodology of De Ruijter Strategy, and based on input from blogs spanning the 1940s–2020s, we have mapped out possible scenarios for sector management in 2030. These scenarios factor in the structural transitions facing society in 2024, such as energy, resources, circularity, agriculture, housing, healthcare, education, financing, and (democratic) governance.

According to this approach, the future of businesses and sector organisations in 2030 depends on two key uncertainties:

1. The pace at which technology is adopted by sector organisations and their members. Currently, there is considerable focus on the exponential development of artificial intelligence (AI), which is expected to enhance the productivity and efficiency of professional service providers and non-profit organisations.
2. The extent of regulatory influence on the sectors where these organisations operate. Will governments retreat post-crisis, returning to liberalisation and self-regulation, or will regulatory pressures persist under the weight of multiple transitions, leading to increased top-down intervention?

By placing these uncertainties into a confrontation matrix, four potential scenarios for 2030 emerge:

1. Sustainable and Inclusive Growth

In this scenario, sustainability is central to economic policy. Major transitions are fully integrated into the economy and society. Companies and sector organisations actively promote sustainability and social justice. The energy transition accelerates through regulations that require companies to operate carbon-neutral. Circular design, waste reduction, closed-loop systems, and the use of recycled materials are mandatory.

Technological innovations in agriculture, housing, and finance stimulate sustainability. Financial markets are heavily regulated and oriented towards sustainable investments. Corporate and organisational decision-making operates through democratic processes.

Sector organisations play a pivotal role, supporting members with tools for CO₂ management and the circular economy. Collaboration between governments, companies, and technology players is key to achieving sustainability goals.

2. Digitally Driven Transformation

Here, the focus is on rapid technological adoption with minimal regulatory constraints. Advanced technologies like blockchain enable peer-to-peer energy networks, but this leads to inequality as not everyone has access to such technologies. While innovations in circularity, healthcare, housing, and finance exist, the lack of mandatory regulations results in unequal access to sustainable solutions. Sectors such as healthcare and ICT thrive, experimenting with AI, telemedicine, and automated systems. AI ethicists play a critical role as companies navigate ethical dilemmas.

With limited government support, sector organisations lead the way in technological adoption, helping members manage their digital transformations.

3. Growing Regulation and Government Intervention

This scenario is dominated by regulation, while technological progress remains slow. Governments enforce strict measures to reduce CO₂ emissions, promote circularity, and advance regenerative agriculture and sustainable housing. However, progress is sluggish due to weak technological infrastructure. Social inequality remains a persistent challenge.

Sector organisations focus on compliance and collaboration with governments, offering members solutions to navigate complex regulations. Technological innovation takes a backseat.

4. Polarisation and Fragmentation

Here, technological progress is slow, and government intervention is limited, leading to regional disparities and fragmented markets. The energy transition, circularity, agriculture, and housing developments are uneven, with wealthier regions advancing while others lag behind. Markets become polarised, increasing social and economic inequalities. Small businesses focus on niche markets and locally produced goods.

Sector organisations help members adapt to regional differences, offering strategies for survival, collaboration, and trust-building to remain relevant.